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The Long Range Planning Division keeps track of population history, prepares current population estimates and projects future population trends.

CURRENT POPULATION ESTIMATE:

The U.S. Census Bureau produced two distinct and significantly different mid-decade population estimates for Chandler. The Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) estimated a population of 234,939 for July 1, 2005 and the Demographic Surveys Division (DSD) estimated a population of 230,845 for Sept. 1, 2005. The DSD estimate is not certified nor officially used by the U.S. Census Bureau in their population estimates program. We believe that the DSD survey result is flawed due to a significant undercount of housing units. Regardless, the DSD estimate will be used by the state to distribute state shared revenues.

The FSCPE estimate is the Census Bureau's official population estimate for Chandler, which was very close to our own estimate. As such, we are using the July 1, 2005 official FSCPE population estimate as a mid-decade benchmark, and have adjusted all of the subsequent months accordingly (i.e. these estimates will be slightly lower than previous monthly estimates.). Monthly estimates will continue to be based on assumptions from the Census 2000, and calculated utilizing the housing unit method. 

In March, 2008 Chandler surpassed the 250,000 population mark!

As of April 1, 2008, the estimated population in Chandler is 250,321

The estimated number of housing units is: 94,025

Click on the link below to view, download and print more detailed information:

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POPULATION HISTORY:

 

 

Since the early 90s, the City of Chandler has experienced exponential growth and has been among the fastest growing municipalities in the country.  In 1997, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Chandler as the 2nd fastest growing city in the U.S. between 1990 - 1996 among cities with a population over 100,0001. Census 2000 counted 176,581 residents in Chandler, representing a 96.8% increase from the City's 1990 population of 89,862.  In 20032 and again in 20043 , the U.S. Census Bureau listed Chandler as the 4th fastest growing city in the country between 2000 - 2003 among cities with populations of 100,000 or more, confirming that Chandler remained among the fastest growing municipalities in the country.

 

Chandler's rapid population growth, however, is not projected to last long.  As the dashed line in the graph above illustrates, population growth is projected to slow down significantly and begin to level off by 2010.  On June 30, 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that the City of Chandler was the 7th fastest growing city among cities with populations over 100,0004.  The city's gradually declining rank among the nation's fastest growing cities is due to the rapidly disappearing land that is planned for residential development.  The city will never reach build-out, per se.  It is expected that the City will continue to see redevelopment, conversions, adaptive reuses, infill, etc.  However, the City projects to reach 90% of build-out population by 2007 and 95% of build-out population by 2010.  As of June 1, 2005, the City is estimated to be 82% of the build-out population. 

 

To view, download and print historical records of the City's monthly population estimates and Census numbers click on the following link:

REFERENCES:

1. United States Department of Commerce News. "Henderson, Nev. Is Nation's Fastest Growing Large City, Census Bureau Says".  Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census.  November 18, 1997.  Obtained report from website address: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/cb97-185.html

 

2. United States Department of Commerce News. "Large Suburban Cities in West Are Fastest-Growing Census Bureau Reports".  Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census.  July 10, 2003.  Obtained report from website address: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2003/cb03-106.html

 

3.  U.S. Census Bureau News.  "Arizona, Nevada and California Cities Show Fastest Growth, Census Bureau Says". U.S. Department of Commerce News.   June 24, 2004.  Obtained report from website address: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/001856.html

 

4. U.S. Census Bureau News. "Port St. Lucie, Fla., is Fastest-Growing City, Census Bureau Says".  U.S. Department of Commerce. June 30, 2005.  Obtained report from website address: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/005268.html

 

Back to Population History and Projections

 

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POPULATION PROJECTIONS:

 

  City of Chandler, Arizona  
  Official Population and Housing Unit Projections  
  updated on January 9, 2007  
         
    Population Housing Units  
         
  July 1, 2007 247,800 93,100  
         
  July 1, 2008 253,600 95,200  
         
  July 1, 2009 259,400 97,500  
         
  July 1, 2010 264,800 99,600  
         
  July 1, 2015 280,000 105,600  
         
  July 1, 2020 283,700 107,200  
         
  July 1, 2025 286,300 108,200  
     
Notes:
  1. Population is projected to reach 90% (259,400) of residential build-out in 2009 and 95% (272,810) in 2012.
  2. The projected build-out population is never final as it will be affected by policy changes in annexation, residential density, redevelopment, and in/out-migration patterns.  Furthermore, the applied growth rate is derived from decades worth of residential development in the Phoenix metropolitan area that has been collected by the Maricopa Association of Governments and is subject to abnormal or otherwise significant market conditions among other factors.
  3. These projections are subject to periodic updates by the City of Chandler Long Range Planning Division and should never be considered static or final.  Any user to whom this data is issued will be sent subsequent updates, at which time the previous data should be discarded. 
  4. Population projections are based on land availability, known development information, and development policies from the General Plan that are currently in place to guide future development.  These projections are calculated utilizing the housing unit method, which uses the latest census count as a base and adds to the base a projected number of new homes, annexed homes and subtracts demolished homes.  A person-per-dwelling-unit ratio that is derived from the latest census is then applied to the number of housing units. 
  5. The Chandler General Plan is scheduled to be updated in 2007.  The update could affect current development policies including redevelopment and residential densities.  As such, these projections will be updated following the General Plan update to reflect the new development policies.
  6. For more information please contact the Long Range Planning Division at 480-782-3059.

 

Click on the following link to download or print the City of Chandler's Official Population Projections:

 

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Housing Unit Method

  • The population count from the last U.S. Census is used as a base.

  • At the end of each month, new housing units that received a certificate of occupancy or utility clearance are counted to estimate new additional population.  The number of people estimated for each housing unit depends on the type of unit (i.e. single family detached, duplex, multi-family, etc.).  This variable (people per unit by type of unit) is derived from the latest U.S. Census data. 

  • Group Quarter (see below) population is added to the estimate.

  • Existing housing units that have been annexed into the City are added.

  • Housing units that have been demolished are subtracted from the estimate.

 

 Group Quarters

Group quarters include nursing homes, hospital/wards, hospices and schools for the handicapped, juvenile institutions, prisons, college dormitories, fraternities, military quarters, group homes, religious group quarters, and other dormitories.

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